Republican Senate Barely Clears First Hurdle to Passing Their Tax Giveaway to the Rich. Could Pass Budget Bill Soon.
After a Saturday of behind-the-scenes deal cutting, GOP Senate leaders voted 51-49 to open debate on their pro-rich/anti-poor and working class reconciliation bill. The Senate debate is now ongoing.
Senate Republican leaders spent their Saturday cutting deals, buying votes, and otherwise using legislative budget tricks to get their own GOP members to open full floor debate on their budget reconciliation package. The vote passed 51-49 with Senators Rand Paul (R-KY) and Thom Tillis (R-NC) joining all Democrats in an attempt to kill the bill before full debate could proceed. The bill is now being read in the Senate due to Senate Democrat demands, with a possible vote on passage coming after a 20-hour maximum debate period followed by a series of votes on proposed amendments. The final vote could come as soon as Monday (June 30, 2025).
If passed, the Senate budget reconciliation bill (the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”) would slash health care, food assistance, and many, many other domestic spending programs that benefit all people and the economy to help paper over tax cuts that primarily benefit billionaires, multimillionaires, and wealthy corporations. Rural America would face deep cuts and economic damage due to reduced federal spending in Medicaid, food assistance, research, affordable housing, clean energy, local farm and food programs, and other rural economic development initiatives.
With respect to holdouts, Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) (predictably) said he’s now supportive given the $25 billion rural hospital fund addition to the bill. Same with Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) (predictably). Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) (predictably) voted in favor of advancing the bill due to some special giveaways to her state, including protections against SNAP (the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program formerly known as food stamps) cuts and an increased state share of revenue from drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.
Another group of Republican Senators, Ron Johnson (R-WI), Rick Scott (R-FL), Cynthia Lummis (R-WY), and Mike Lee (R-UT), held out because they are “concerned” about the enormous increase in debt and deficit increases due to the bill. They are claiming to have voted for the advance only and are not necessarily “yes votes” for the final bill. They plan to offer amendments to reduce the cost of the reconciliation bill, though they tend to focus on spending cuts rather than the $4.5 trillion increase due to tax cuts.
Lee did pull his controversial provision to sell of public lands, given five Western Republican House members saying they would not vote for the Senate bill in the House if the public lands selloff was included.
Tillis said he’s a clear “no vote” given the deep cuts North Carolina would face due to slashing Medicaid. President Donald Trump exploded with rage at Tillis and will be working against the incumbent during the 2026 GOP primary election. Trump wants a MAGA Republican to replace Tillis.
Due to the rushed nature of the process in the Senate, it is difficult to pin down actual numbers in the Senate reconciliation package. Best estimates are that the tax cuts will cost $4.5 trillion (YES—TRILLION) while spending cuts would account for around $1 trillion. Cuts to Medicaid, SNAP, and other critical programs amount to more than $1 trillion, but increased funding for Trump’s massive deportation agenda, further construction of Trump’s ridiculous Border Wall, and a large increase to spending on the “farm safety net” that benefits primarily large cotton, peanut, and rice plantations in the South reduces the “savings.”
If the Senate is able to achieve final passage, the Senate changes to the reconciliation bill will have to pass the House. It is not clear whether House Freedom Caucus members will pass the Senate bill due to its larger debt and deficit increase than was in the original House reconciliation bill. If the House makes changes to the Senate passed bill, Congress will have to convene a “conference committee” to further negotiate differences between bills in each chamber.
The Cocklebur covers rural policy and politics from a progressive point-of-view. Our work focuses on a tangled rural political reality of dishonest debate, economic and racial disparities, corporate power over our democracy, and disinformation peddled by conservative media outlets. We aim to use facts, data, and science to inform our point-of-view. We wear our complicated love/WTF relationship with rural America on our sleeve.