The Numbers Behind the Farm Vote. And Why Those Numbers Matter.
While most farmers and ranchers did vote for Trump, most of his actions have been harmful to the farm economy. This analysis provides context for the "farmers are reaping what they've sown" talk.
THIS ANALYSIS WAS CO-WRITTEN BY JAKE DAVIS. IT IS THE FIRST OF A 3-PART SERIES ON MONOPOLY FARMERS AND THE “FARM VOTE.”
Since President Donald Trump announced his “Liberation Day” tariffs April 2, 2025, many media stories and social media posts have focused on farmers and the damage Trump’s Trade War will do to U.S. agriculture. Some of the discussion has been sympathetic toward farmers. Other commenters have expressed disgust, blaming farmers for “electing Trump”, asking “why shouldn’t farmers reap what they’ve sown for electing such an anti-farm President?”
Posts like this are being widely circulated:
The perceived need for the “farmers voted for Trump” discourse makes a lot of sense. Farmers are, after all, getting hammered by Trump’s tariffs. Trump’s Trade Chaos is not only likely to reduce farm income, it is also causing inflation. That means exploding farm input costs for imported fertilizers, chemicals, equipment, and more (See this Wisconsin farmer’s first-hand experience in Barn Raiser). Trump is also responsible for slashing services, cutting jobs, and shutting down U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) offices. He has frozen or canceled funding and contracts for many farm-based local food projects, created roadblocks for participating in clean energy programs, and is challenging several programs that support conservation practices on farms.
Given Trump’s clear anti-farmer leadership in his second term, questioning the overwhelming support for the President in farm country is fair enough. Farmer-focused polling has estimated that more than 3/4 of farmers voted Trump into office. So did 78% of voters in the 444 counties nationwide where farming disproportionately drives local economies. That said, a lot of the public debate over the farm vote is based on bad information, stereotypes and nostalgia, flawed analysis, and a near-complete misunderstanding of farm politics. No matter whether they’re from the political right, left, or center, most talking heads and pundits are getting it wrong.
That’s for a lot of reasons: Trump’s endless talk of his “beautiful farmers,” broadcasted images of “farmers for Trump” signs on barns and barnyards, increasing Republican victories in elections for U.S. House and Senate seats where farmland make up a larger-than-average share of the state, many Democrats’ corresponding inability to differentiate themselves from Republicans on farming and farm issues. Rinse and repeat.
The biggest problem with flawed descriptions and pontifications about farm politics is with the math itself. While farm voters certainly account for large portions of the electorate in some local elections, the truth is that the “farm vote” as a bloc has very little impact on national elections. Much like coal miners and people who ride private rockets into space, farmers punch above their weight politically. Though they are often featured as major players in the political world, farmers actually make up a tiny, tiny percentage of voters.
There’s also the fact that just like all U.S. voters, farmers decide who to vote for based on many reasons. Farmers care about the economy, health care, taxes, infrastructure, migration, democracy, bureaucracy, pollution, crime, and much more. The vast majority of farmers work off the farm for their income, so farm issues might be less important to them in making voting decisions. Some farmers don’t vote at all, and others vote in every election. Plus, there’s the huge role of partisanship and identity politics when casting ballots.
All that aside, when discussing the “farmer vote,” the media and policymakers still get it all wrong. They think all farmers drive big green or red tractors in straight rows or raise livestock for meat or milk in big barns. The reality is that this group is a very small subset of farmers. This politically influential group—what we call “Monopoly Farmers”—tend to support Trump and the Republican party, maintain close ties with corporate agribusiness interests, raise the vast majority of crops, and raise livestock in huge concentrated-and-confined industrial factories or cattle feedlots. They also tend to participate in farm advocacy groups like the Farm Bureau, Farmers Union and/or checkoff-funded commodity groups like the National Cattlemen's Beef Association and American Soybean Association.
To some, it may be unclear why this distinction matters. The answer is that on election day, we count votes, not total economic production. Yet, policymakers on both sides of the aisle exclusively court “Monopoly Farmers” when they think about making farm policy to help them win reelection. An example of that is the obsessive focus on the impact of grain exports in discussions about President Trump's approach to trade. There are groups like R-CALF USA, arguably representing far more western ranchers than any other farm organization, that champion tariff impacts on domestic cattle and sheep prices. We point this out to clarify that “Monopoly Farmers” don’t speak for all farmers.
For the purposes of this series on the farm vote, Monopoly Farmers are defined as those who reported more than $500,000 in agricultural goods sold in the 2022 Ag Census.1 Previous Monopoly Farmer analysis in The Cocklebur used $1,000,000 in sales for a definition. The Ag Census does not include the $1,000,000 amount in its state-by-state reporting.
NOTE—We understand that defining “Monopoly Farmers” by $500,000 or more in agricultural sales is imperfect. We personally know numerous farm bill reformers, leaders who stand up against corporate agribusiness, committed conservationists, and scaled-up produce growers who oppose the Monopoly Farmer agenda and Monopoly Farmer politics. Our definition of Monopoly Farmer includes not only size and market power, but also the policy perspective of fencerow-to-fencerow crop production, defending factory livestock operations, deregulation, lower taxes for the wealthy, and ignoring corporate agribusiness control over markets.
The following table documents 2022 Ag Census reported number of farms per state, number of farms with more than $500,000 in sales, and percentage of farms with more than $500,000 in sales per state:
Some important notes on the above table:
Delaware is a clear outlier with the largest percentage of Monopoly Farms per state. That is primarily due to Delaware’s large number of industrial poultry operations. Delaware had a reported 588 poultry operations selling 242,072,919 broilers (chickens raised for meat) in the 2022 Ag Census.
The next states with the highest percentage of Monopoly Farms—North Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, South Dakota, and Illinois—produce much of the nation’s corn, soybeans, fed cattle, and hogs.
California’s large number of farms with more than $500,000 in sales is due to large numbers of high-value crops like fruit, nuts, berries, vegetables, and rice. California also has a significant number of industrial dairy and poultry operations.
The following table documents the share of Monopoly Farms and their very small impact on the 2024 Presidential election. The number of Monopoly Farm voters is the number of “producers” reported in the Ag Census (male + female agricultural producers), a number larger than the number of Monopoly Farms. Third party candidates are not included in this analysis. Negative numbers in the final two columns represent a victory for former Vice President Kamala Harris.
This analysis shows that Monopoly Farmers, those most likely to participate in farm politics, make up a very small portion of the total farmer vote and an even smaller portion of the overall electorate.
It is relatively obvious why high-net-worth “Monopoly Farmers” have historically supported President Trump and Republicans. They tend to support protecting wealth and corporations, lower taxes, and an agriculture policy that reduces their risk and bails them out in times of crisis. That kind of farm and tax policy is hard for Monopoly Farmers to resist, but they simply do not swing national elections.
Possibly even more important for Democrats: a large majority of American farmers and ranchers do not meet the “Monopoly Farmer” criteria. This group, making up just under 89% of the farms, might be open to farm policies that many Democrats endorse: breaking up agribusiness monopolies, implementing penalties for price gouging, incentivizing conservation, holding industrial livestock operations accountable for their pollution, making land more affordable for beginning farmers, helping local farmers gain access to markets in public institutions, and more. These policies could help Democrats differentiate themselves from Republicans in farm country, and most importantly would help free the farm majority from the rigged farm economy they are struggling through today.
SPONSORED CONTENT FROM RURALORGANIZING.ORG:
Rural organizers, leaders, and fighters for democracy—this is our moment. On Saturday, April 26, RuralOrganizing.org is hosting a Rural Democratic Leaders Conference, where hundreds of rural civic leaders, organizers, and influencers from across the country will come together to build a grassroots plan to stop Trump and Musk's far-right power grab and rebuild the Democratic Party from the ground up
Join virtually in the comfort of your living room (or wherever you have internet) on Saturday, April 26th, from 12-4 PM ET! We’ve always known how to organize in harsh environments. Now, the rest of the country needs our roadmap.
END OF SPONSORED CONTENT
The Cocklebur covers rural policy and politics from a progressive point-of-view. Our work focuses on a tangled rural political reality of dishonest debate, economic and racial disparities, corporate power over our democracy, and disinformation peddled by conservative media outlets. We aim to use facts, data, and science to inform our point-of-view. We wear our complicated love/WTF relationship with rural America on our sleeve.
NOTE—Why We Use the Ag Census: The 2022 Ag Census was released February 13th, 2024. The Ag Census is conducted every five years, and is a treasure trove of information about the size, shape, scale, and scope of farming and agriculture in the U.S. Farmers fill out detailed census forms that tabulate production practices, acres in production, markets, inventory of livestock, and more. The Ag Census plays an essential role in informing policymakers, the media, farmers themselves, business interests, and the general public about the state-of-affairs with respect to U.S. agriculture.
They would already have them if they had voted blue. Apparently they prefer a dim-witted white felon ogre to an intelligent black female prosecutor.
They voted for Trump.